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.cb TOWARDS MEDIATION IN SOUTH AFRICA


	There will probably be a war in South Africa between the
South African whites and the South African blacks and the black
ruled countries bordering South Africa.  In this war, the white
South Africans will be on their own, but their opponents will have
considerable outside help.  How soon such a war might begin is
problematic, because the countries determined to attack aren't
strong enough yet.

	Let us consider the imaginable outcomes:

1. The white South Africans are conquered, accept majority rule,
are moderately well treated, and the area becomes normal.  Objectively,
this seems unlikely, and it is seen and will be seen as extremely
unlikely by the white South Africans.

2. The white South Africans are conquered and are treated badly -
almost all the survivors becoming refugees.  The white South Africans
see this as more likely that alternative 1 and so, apparently, do
most black Africans.

3. The white South Africans win a decisive victory, and the present
situation continues indefinitely.  Probably no-one regards this as
likely, because a decisive victory could only be obtained by the
white South Africans conquering black Africa.  They might succeed
in this if Africa were isolated, but no-one believes it likely that
the rest of the world would permit this outcome.

4. An extremely bloody battle in which hundreds of thousands of whites
and maybe millions of blacks are killed leads to an eventual
stalemate from which neither party can make progress.  An armistice
and a more or less uneasy peace occurs.  This has two subcases:

	a. Millions of blacks still inhabit the white controlled
territory, and the whites still benefit from their labor.

	b. In the course of the fighting, the blacks flee or are
driven to black controlled territory or engage in sabotage to
such an extent that the whites can no longer use them as a source
of labor.

	In my opinion, 4b is the most likely outcome.  I don't think
the whites can benefit long from black labor after a war starts.  The
whites will be squeezed to some area, large or small, that they can
control and work without black labor.  I don't think the whites can
be conquered at an acceptable cost to the blacks, because they will
regard 2 as the most likely outcome in that case, and they will resort
to nuclear weapons if pressed hard enough.  I don't think any determined
people with nuclear weapons can be conquered in the forseeable future
without their enemies being devastated also.

	If 4b is the most likely outcome of a war, then men of good will
should ask themselves whether it is possible to reach this outcome without
killing all those people or with as few people killed as possible.
It seems to me that it is unlikely that war can be avoided completely,
but there is some chance.  Even if war can't be avoided, the number
killed can be minimized by reaching a settlement as quickly as possible
as soon as there is enough agreement on what outcome is likely.

	The best technique for avoiding or ending a war is mediation
by a third party.  At present there seems to be no-one in the world
qualified to serve as a mediator of this dispute.  The reason is that
every government and the U.N. all have opinions on what a just outcome
would be, and these opinions are determined by the politics within
the government or the U.N.  A genuine mediator is not concerned with
justice but is more concerned with reaching an agreement.  An agreement
can only be reached on terms that both parties prefer to continuing
or starting the fighting.  At present, the dominant world opinion is
that the blacks ought to rule South Africa.  Some are concerned with
the fate of the whites, but would rely on hopes that the blacks would
make and keep an agreement to treat them acceptably.  Maybe the
South African whites could come to believe that, but it seems unlikely.
More likely, they would have to be conquered and they would resort
to nuclear weapons to deter that outcome.  It is also unlikely that
an arbitrator acceptable to both sides can be found - a person or
group whose just decision both sides would agree to accept.

	Although no-one can mediate now, eventually it will become
clear that mediation is necessary and some government will undertake
to do it.  Maybe the U.S. will do it.

	Even if a good mediator were available, it is unlikely that
he could have much effect at present for the following reasons:

1. At present, the whites are too comfortable.  While many of them
fear the future, this fear has existed for some time, and older
whites can hope that the crisis won't come in their lifetimes.
It is indeed plausible that the level of fighting won't become
unacceptable to the whites for many years.

2. The dynamics of politics among the blacks is such that nothing
short of total black power could be agreed upon today.

3. A solution without war is not in the interest of the leaders of the
Soviet Union or of revolutionary movements.  A war in Africa, like the war
in Vietnam, will permit them to make political gains all over the world,
because anything less than their total enthusiasm, for the war or any
attempt at mitigating the fate of the whites, will meet a successful
propaganda attack.

	It seems to me that any peace movement must be based on
the following principles:

1. There cannot be a black majority in a territory ruled by whites.
Any settlement based on this would be temporary.

2. If there are blacks in a territory ruled by whites, their presence
must be voluntary and they must have full civil rights.

3. The whites must have some territory ruled by them.

	In principle, there is no more objection to a secure and
prosperous white presence in territory ruled by blacks than the converse
situation in America, but I don't believe there is any way of getting
there from where the situation is now.

	Mediation says nothing about the relative
sizes of the black and white territories.  The sole requirement is
that the outcome be preferable to war to both sides.  If there is
any outcome both sides prefer to war, there will be a range of such
outcomes, and the actual outcome will be determined by bargaining.
In the bargaining, roles can be played by threats (both sincere
threats and bluffs), arguments about justice, the opinions of
outsiders, and efforts by outsiders to sweeten the pot aimed at
making one or both sides prefer a certain outcome to war.
or continuing a war.  It seems unlikely that the thirteen percent
that the present South African government allocates to blacks will
be preferred by the blacks to war.  Thirteen percent allocated to
whites also seems too small.
	
	What can be done now to reduce the chances of war or mitigate
its effects?  Merely to advance partition as a solution will advance
the movement among whites to prefer agreeing to a reduced standard of
living in reduced territory to letting the tension increase and war
become inevitable.  If they are offered no way out, intransigence
is probably the most rational alternative.  Probably the blacks will
accept the idea of partition more readily.  They have a long wait
and much suffering to undergo, before they can even begin a war.
If they can be convinced that partition is the likely outcome of
a war anyway, they will probably settle for it, but maybe not until
they have flexed a few more muscles.

	Unfortunately for its instant acceptability, partition looks
qualitatively like the Afrikaaner nationalist proposal of %2apartheid%1.
The difference is that the relative amounts of territory will be
settled by negotiation (not by a unilateral white decision), it won't
be granted that the whites are a superior race, there may be substantial
settlements of cash and division of industry, and outsiders (e.g. the
U.S., Japan and Germany) might be persuaded to sweeten the pot.

	Even more unfortunately, it would take great political courage for
the American peace movement to support mediation in Africa.  It will be
much easier to take a vicarious "victory or death" attitude on behalf of
the African blacks.  The quantity of death may be very large.

.begin verbatim
John McCarthy
Stanford, California
.end